Elections & Political Parties

For generations, being a big-city mayor was akin to being confined to the political equivalent of Devil’s Island. Even if you escaped imprisonment, it was only with the shirt on your back.

But today, mayors across America are riding an unprecedented wave of upward mobility. Here in California, for example, the men most widely touted to become governor once the Terminator terminates are not any of the myriad of statewide Democratic officeholders, but two high-profile mayors, San Francisco’s Gavin Newsom and Los Angeles’ Antonio Villaraigosa.

Just about everyone understands the importance of Iraq to the Democrats’ success in the 2006 midterm elections. Far fewer, we suspect, understand that the Democrats owe a good chunk of their 2006 success to an issue that has historically been one of their strongest: the economy.

In novels, films, or real life, There’s really only one Washington story: Newcomer comes to town, full of idealism and ready to change the country, but soon encounters the permanent government that defines what you can’t do and whom you have to deal with if you want to try. The permanent government might be octogenarian committee chairs, ruthless staffers, or -- more recently, as the power of the committee chairs has waned -- the lobbyists.

Back in 1994, legend has it, a Republican Revolution captured Washington. Revolution was surely the right word, featuring as it did a leader who would have ordered his portrait painted onto the façade of public buildings, except for the fact that he wanted public buildings torn down. Like any good revolution, it came with a manifesto, a pseudo-intellectual vanguard, a taste for theatrics, absurd promises, and a quick slide into decadence and corruption.

It’s a brilliant strategy as long as it works. But eventually, it will become apparent that the normal rules of the game were there for a reason. Without a broad mandate, power alone was not enough to get Bush’s Social Security plan moving. It wasn’t enough to permanently resolve the distinctions between social and economic conservatives that constitute the majority. And it won’t be enough to prevent the crackup that will soon finish off the era of Republican dominance.

On this Thanksgiving, some might be feeling especially thankful -- but maybe shouldn’t. And others might have more to be happy about than they realize.

Let’s start with a winner who might yet turn out to be a loser.

Yes, Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is in line to be the next speaker of the House, just two heartbeats away from the presidency. But let’s be honest here: Does anybody think she’s been doing a good job since the election?

Remember the congressional vote to build a wall across part of the U.S.-Mexico border? Maybe it was all a con.

In September, the House of Representatives voted 283-138, and the Senate 80-19 to authorize about 700 miles of fencing. Mission accomplished for border security? Not quite. For one thing, the wall covered only a third of the U.S.-Mexico frontier. And, second of all, Congress only authorized the wall -- it didn’t fund it. (The cost is estimated as between $4 billion and $8 billion.)

LOS ANGELES -- Amidst the Republican rout, some important political lessons can be drawn from the results in California. Oft dismissed by conservatives as "the left coast" and written off as hopelessly blue, the state election revealed some critical trends that may prove decisive -- for both parties -- in 2008 and beyond.

The day after the 2006 US mid-term elections, a polite but important coup is under way in Washington. Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld has gone. Brent Scowcroft acolyte, former CIA director and anti-neo-conservative realist Robert Gates has got Rumsfeld’s job. Democrats control both chambers of Congress. And George W. Bush has found that not only can he not stay the course in Iraq, he can’t stay the course on any policy front.

Republicans are going to have to figure out why they lost on Tuesday, and Democrats are going to have to figure out why they won.

The shape of the next two years -- including the even more important 2008 elections -- depends on how the two parties interpret what happened.